Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.167436 0.187858 0.209900 0.235478 0.264366 0.296008 0.333334
2025-11-30 0.137114 0.164444 0.196061 0.235414 0.283192 0.339454 0.410933
2025-12-07 0.109260 0.138982 0.175543 0.223990 0.286756 0.365665 0.472935
2025-12-14 0.090255 0.121166 0.161398 0.217888 0.295633 0.399556 0.550147
2025-12-21 0.075670 0.106747 0.149355 0.212484 0.304408 0.434560 0.634897
2025-12-28 0.066810 0.098728 0.144681 0.216315 0.326368 0.490996 0.759557
2026-01-04 0.057897 0.089274 0.136522 0.213708 0.338341 0.534590 0.872676
2026-01-11 0.051347 0.082397 0.131168 0.214454 0.355444 0.588589 1.011830
2026-01-18 0.046413 0.077333 0.127876 0.217900 0.377322 0.653608 1.181134
2026-01-25 0.040111 0.069127 0.118292 0.209257 0.377070 0.680608 1.287610
2026-02-01 0.034550 0.061435 0.108529 0.198806 0.371844 0.697654 1.378272
2026-02-08 0.030671 0.056203 0.102387 0.194011 0.376282 0.733190 1.511381
2026-02-15 0.027136 0.051244 0.096279 0.188764 0.379785 0.768982 1.655399
2026-02-22 0.025138 0.048935 0.094856 0.192524 0.402113 0.846834 1.906122
2026-03-01 0.022264 0.044540 0.088804 0.185978 0.401870 0.877228 2.056898
2026-03-08 0.020110 0.041317 0.084686 0.182904 0.408707 0.924418 2.257467
2026-03-15 0.018221 0.038402 0.080822 0.179808 0.415006 0.971526 2.468178
2026-03-22 0.017168 0.037130 0.080275 0.184069 0.439144 1.065007 2.818243
2026-03-29 0.015781 0.034950 0.077457 0.182633 0.449290 1.126006 3.095235
2026-04-05 0.014728 0.033391 0.075836 0.183827 0.466242 1.207461 3.448204
2026-04-12 0.013917 0.032288 0.075129 0.187175 0.489363 1.309511 3.885300
2026-04-19 0.012551 0.029705 0.070586 0.180106 0.483519 1.331491 4.085425
2026-04-26 0.011237 0.027099 0.065677 0.171387 0.471767 1.334882 4.228646